AIDS and the Soccer World Cup 2010 – what price Glory?
A feature of local thinking is the inability, or reluctance, to assess the true cost of policies and endeavours. The euphoria generated by South Africa winning the bid to stage the 2010 Soccer World Cup has, I believe, once more clouded our vision. It has been greeted as one would the arrival of a relief column bringing sustenance to a besieged and starving outpost. The delivery, at last, of the long awaited goodies that faith has led us to believe is an entitlement. We are latter-day ‘cargo cult’ devotees who have at last been favoured by the arrival of a plane load of essentials and even luxuries. Our lives will now be embellished and we will move forward into new sun filled days – or will we?
We are being told daily that we can expect an injection of R30 Billion rand into our economy. Yet this is a mere once-off sum of R750 for each South African if we use a total population figure of 40 million. This must be balanced against the cost of the improvements needed to stadiums, transport systems and infrastructure generally. The money for this will be a requirement and not a gift. The cost of the debt will linger on long after the World Cup has come and gone. Will we be able to fill continually our enlarged stadiums, rapid-rail systems, gleaming hotels and cavernous airport terminals so that they service the investment?
Balanced against the tumult and the shouting surrounding our ‘win’ is a sobering thought. Many, many of the joy-filled people we see in the news each day will not live to watch the soccer in 2010. It is estimated that by 2008 that AIDS will be claiming nearly one million lives a year in Southern Africa. The thing to note is the medical cost to society, that will grow to unbearable levels. The cost in 1990 of treating each AIDS patient was R80 000 to R100 000. Extrapolated forward to today this means an annual cost of R90 billion or so; an impossible burden.
The Government AIDS policy seems to one of negligent or even deliberate disregard. Nedbank’s Guide to the Economy dated August 1990 said the following
The remarkable aspect of the AIDS epidemic is the lengthy identifiable run-up to it through the spread of HIV infection. There is accumulating medical evidence in the journals on the rapid expansion of the HIV infection. At present evidence points to a doubling time of 8.5 months..........
In addition there is an abundance of evidence available that made the onset of AIDS far more predictable than winning the World Cup bid. Yet more news time and effort has been given to this rather than AIDS. The Win coupled with our celebration of 10 Years of Democracy is the good news that yet again enables the bad to be buried.
Sadly AIDS will endure whilst the World Cup will flicker for an instant. AIDS will consume the largesse gleaned and reduce our glorious and hyped New South Africa to a shell. Perhaps a news heading before the World Cup bid announcement has even deeper meaning.
Kom laat ons Bid*
(Afrikaans = Come let us pray/bid)
A feature of local thinking is the inability, or reluctance, to assess the true cost of policies and endeavours. The euphoria generated by South Africa winning the bid to stage the 2010 Soccer World Cup has, I believe, once more clouded our vision. It has been greeted as one would the arrival of a relief column bringing sustenance to a besieged and starving outpost. The delivery, at last, of the long awaited goodies that faith has led us to believe is an entitlement. We are latter-day ‘cargo cult’ devotees who have at last been favoured by the arrival of a plane load of essentials and even luxuries. Our lives will now be embellished and we will move forward into new sun filled days – or will we?
We are being told daily that we can expect an injection of R30 Billion rand into our economy. Yet this is a mere once-off sum of R750 for each South African if we use a total population figure of 40 million. This must be balanced against the cost of the improvements needed to stadiums, transport systems and infrastructure generally. The money for this will be a requirement and not a gift. The cost of the debt will linger on long after the World Cup has come and gone. Will we be able to fill continually our enlarged stadiums, rapid-rail systems, gleaming hotels and cavernous airport terminals so that they service the investment?
Balanced against the tumult and the shouting surrounding our ‘win’ is a sobering thought. Many, many of the joy-filled people we see in the news each day will not live to watch the soccer in 2010. It is estimated that by 2008 that AIDS will be claiming nearly one million lives a year in Southern Africa. The thing to note is the medical cost to society, that will grow to unbearable levels. The cost in 1990 of treating each AIDS patient was R80 000 to R100 000. Extrapolated forward to today this means an annual cost of R90 billion or so; an impossible burden.
The Government AIDS policy seems to one of negligent or even deliberate disregard. Nedbank’s Guide to the Economy dated August 1990 said the following
The remarkable aspect of the AIDS epidemic is the lengthy identifiable run-up to it through the spread of HIV infection. There is accumulating medical evidence in the journals on the rapid expansion of the HIV infection. At present evidence points to a doubling time of 8.5 months..........
In addition there is an abundance of evidence available that made the onset of AIDS far more predictable than winning the World Cup bid. Yet more news time and effort has been given to this rather than AIDS. The Win coupled with our celebration of 10 Years of Democracy is the good news that yet again enables the bad to be buried.
Sadly AIDS will endure whilst the World Cup will flicker for an instant. AIDS will consume the largesse gleaned and reduce our glorious and hyped New South Africa to a shell. Perhaps a news heading before the World Cup bid announcement has even deeper meaning.
Kom laat ons Bid*
(Afrikaans = Come let us pray/bid)
posted by Malcolm @ 11:37 pm
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